Biology of life expectancy and aging as a complex scientific and practical problem. Changing the retirement age and pension policy

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical and methodological foundations of the study 8

1.1 The essence of the definition of "life expectancy", research tools

1.2 Aspects of studying the problem of life expectancy. Assessment of the phenomenon in social and territorial terms

1.3 Methods for studying the socio-economic situation in the region

Chapter 2. Regional features of life expectancy 30

2.1 Territorial differentiation of life expectancy by municipalities of the region 30

2.2 Basic parameters demographic situation in the study of life expectancy

2.3 Sex and age characteristics of the population and its composition 49

2.4 The phenomenon of age-specific anomalies in mortality is a determinant of the general health of the population

2.5 Modes of reproduction and life expectancy of the population

Chapter 3 The social aspect in assessing the life expectancy of the population

3.1 Social problems life expectancy in the region 79

3.2 Social environment and labor losses 86

3.3 Social transformation of families and the impact of life expectancy on it

Chapter 4 Economic Valuation of Life 104

4.1 Economic situation in the region and changes in life expectancy 104

4.2 Correlation dependences between socio-economic factors and values ​​of population survival parameters

4.3 Particular and general calculations of losses from reduced life expectancy

4.4 Measures to increase the life expectancy of the population of the study region

4.5 Predictions for assessing the phenomenon under study: socio-economic and territorial aspects

Conclusion 144

Literature 148

Applications 162

Introduction to work

Relevance of the topic due to a sharp deterioration in the demographic situation in the country and its regions over the past twenty years.

The severity of the problem is especially clearly revealed in the main resulting indicators, which include the life expectancy of the population. Unlike mortality rates, when calculating life expectancy, not only the quantitative, but also the qualitative side of the population extinction process is taken into account. The final value is affected by the age of each of the deceased.

Life expectancy, along with the indicator of population coverage with education and gross domestic product, makes up the human development index (HDI), used by the UN as a characteristic of the level and quality of life.

In the Address of the President of Russia V.V. Putin for 2006 to the Federal Assembly Russian Federation the most pressing problem modern Russia demography is named - this is due to the fact that the number of inhabitants of the country annually becomes less by 700 thousand people. There are three directions to solve the problem: reducing mortality, an effective migration policy, and increasing the birth rate.

High mortality, especially in young and working age, over the past decades has pushed the life expectancy indicator in Russia to the level of developing countries. The increase in mortality, no less than the low birth rate, led to a negative natural increase.

However, despite its priority, the issue of increasing life expectancy is not sufficiently reflected in various scientific sources, including works on economic and social geography, economics and sociology.

Purpose of the study- to identify the specifics and problems of life expectancy of the population, depending on the socio-economic characteristics of the territorial units of a particular region.

Realization of the set goal required the following research tasks:

determination and evaluation of methodological and applied tools in the study, calculation of key indicators;

analysis of the situation on the studied phenomenon in the territory in demographic, social and economic aspects and study of the causes of anomalies in mortality;

calculation of the correlation dependence of life expectancy on the conditions and quality of life in the territory;

calculation of losses from non-survival for various groups of the population
region and substantiation of the main blocks of regional complex
programs providing for the preservation of the optimal composition of residents;

Study area- Chita region, traditionally inferior in this indicator most regions of Russia.

An object study - the population of Eastern Transbaikalia.

Subject research - territorial differentiation of the level of survival of the inhabitants of the Chita region.

Methodological basis studies were the works of domestic geographers and demographic economists A.Ya. Boyarsky (1975), S.A. Kovaleva (1980), V.V. Pokshishevsky (1974), D.I. Valenteya (1976), A.G. Volkova (1985), B.Ts. Urlanis (1978, 1986), SI. Pirozhkova (1976), N.M. Rimashevskaya (1996, 2001), N.V. Zubarevich (2002,2003), A.G. Vishnevsky (1993), A.A. Nedesheva (1968), D.D. Mangataeva (1988, 2000), A.M. Kotelnikova (2002), K.N. Misevich, SV. Ryashchenko (1988,2002).

In addition, the work used the materials of the Committee on Labor and Social Policy, the Committee of State Statistics of the Chita Region, the works of the Baikal Forums in 2001, 2003; information from the regional archive 3 AGS.

The work was carried out within the framework economic and social geography using geographical, demographic, statistical research methods.

Scientific novelty consists in determining the regional differentiation of life expectancy under the influence of the socio-economic situation in the region, as well as in improving the methodology for calculating the losses of the region due to the low survival rate of the population.

Practical significance research lies in the specificity of indicators and analysis of demographic processes required in the practice of regional management. The main sections of the work are used in the development of constructive measures to mitigate the demographic situation in the region.

Approbation of work carried out through participation in international conference"Economy, Ecology, Tourism: Investment Mechanisms" (Chita, 2003), All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference "Energy of the Young - Russian Economy" (Tomsk, 2005), Interregional Scientific and Practical Conferences "Kulagin Readings" (Chita, 2004, 2005) , "Management of economic systems" (Chita, 2006).

Work structure. The dissertation consists of introduction, 4 chapters, conclusion and appendices.

Second chapter reflects the features of demographic processes in the region with an emphasis on gender and age parameters and anomalies in mortality of the population and their dynamics in the study area.

The social aspect of life expectancy assessment is the content third chapter, where due place is given to the correlative dependence of the studied indicator on the parameters of the socio-economic situation.

AT fourth chapter calculations of losses from a reduction in survival are carried out; an analysis of constructive actions to increase life expectancy is given.

Conclusion contains the main conclusions of the study.

The work includes 171 pages of computer text, 31 tables and 26 graphs and charts, as well as a list of references from 159 sources, 8 appendices.

The materials of the dissertation allow us to single out the following provisions that represent the subject of defense.

1. Regional differentiation of life expectancy
due to the territorial features of the economic and
socio-demographic development of districts, while among the latter in
worse off were the relatively more developed and
polyprofile.

2. The low level of survival in the Chita region is explained by
significant mortality of the population, which does not correspond to the prevailing
age and sex structure, mainly due to exposure to
factors of a socio-behavioral nature.

3. On the value of life expectancy of the population has
influence of many factors, however, in regional analyzes of life expectancy
the leading criterion is to use an integral indicator
quality of life.

4. Calculations of the order of extinction and the possible level of survival revealed
loss of territory in absolute terms of the number of unlived person-years
by different age groups and their material equivalent;
the decrease in the level of these indicators must be taken into account in the creation
regional integrated programs.

The essence of the definition of "life expectancy", research tools

Almost every person is interested in possible life expectancy. The question of how long each of us can live has always aroused the interest of both scientists and people far from science. It is no coincidence that they tried to compile the first mortality table as early as the 2nd century AD.

The concept of "life expectancy" has been considered and studied by many scientists. In the works of such domestic demographers as B.Ts. Urlanis, A.Ya. Boyarsky, D.I. Valenten, A.Ya. Kvasha, V.M. Medkov, A.G., Volkov and others, he is given considerable attention. However, despite the development of the issue, a generally accepted definition of this concept has not been given. Therefore, there is a need to consider the interpretations given in many encyclopedic, reference publications, textbooks and teaching aids, monographic works on demographic topics.

The most precise and capacious definition was given by A.Ya. Boyarsky (Demographic ..., 1985): life expectancy is the interval between birth and death, equal to the age of death.

In demography, there are concepts that are often perceived as synonymous with life expectancy:

Life expectancy at birth is the number of years that each child born in a given year will have to live on average, provided that throughout his life the mortality rate at each age will be the same as it is in a given year (Countries ..., 2003 ).

Life expectancy is the age at which, out of the entire population of people born in a given year, half of the people died, and the other half are still living. (Rosset, 1981)

Normal life expectancy is the age at which the second maximum of deaths occurs (Fig. 1), that is, the maximum of deaths at an older age (Rosset, 1981).

The indicator is very informative, because, cutting off the impact of infant mortality and accidental deaths at a young age, it shows the most natural life expectancy of a person in given conditions.

Biological lifespan is the biologically possible limit of human lifespan. All of the listed characteristics play a significant role in assessment and analysis, but life expectancy is an indicator that has the highest integral, synthesizing value. Life expectancy studies are usually based on a specified survival interval. The life expectancy interval, starting from 0 years, is usually understood as a general indicator of the life expectancy of an average (in the statistical sense) inhabitant of a territory or some social group.

However, life expectancy can be determined for any age. For example, one can consider the age of 50 years and, on the basis of a tabular characteristic of extinction, determine both the possible interval of the remaining life and the measure of the probability of surviving to 51, 55, etc. years. Thus, the above concept is a characteristic of the mortality of the population, the order of extinction of a certain population of inhabitants (Boyarsky, Shusherin, 1955) for a specific period under study. Trends in this process are most fully reflected in the mortality tables.

The informational and resulting value of life expectancy has not yet been given the necessary importance; in assessing the demographic situation, more attention is paid to another indicator - the mortality of the population, more precisely, the mortality rate. This indicator is equal to the ratio of the absolute number of deaths to the average population for the corresponding period of time, usually expressed in ppm, that is, it is calculated per 1000 people.

Territorial differentiation of life expectancy by municipalities of the region

In terms of life expectancy, the Chita region has traditionally lagged behind other regions, constantly being in the last five of the rating table. On the one hand, natural conditions contributed to this, but on the other hand, the problem has never been given due attention either in informational, social, or ideological terms; accordingly, there have been no attempts to purposefully work to change the situation. Part of the works is devoted to this topic, but they are lost against the general background (Mangataeva 1988, 2000; Nedeshev, Lazhentsev, 1968; Burek, Krendelev, Nedeshev 1985; Shotsky, 1989). Much more attention has been paid in the literature to the problems natural plan, various economic complexes, and in the 90s and beyond - ecosystems that unanimously do not recognize the right of a person to occupy any place in these systems. As calculations show (Table 3), almost the entire post-war period, Transbaikalia was characterized by consistently low values ​​of life expectancy of the population, the gap from the all-Russian indicators was approximately three years. By 1989, against the backdrop of a general rapid growth, the gap is reduced to two years. had a positive effect on the value of the analyzed indicator. By the beginning of the 90s, in Russia as a whole, it reached the level of 69-70 years (67.5 in the Chita region) - for the entire population, and for the female part it passed in 74 years (72 - in the Chita region) - values ​​comparable with the indicators of developed countries (Appendix 1), although lagging behind the leaders by 5-6 years.

At the turn of the third millennium, the unfavorable trend of increasing mortality in young and middle ages affected the survival rates throughout Russia: the losses amounted to about 4 years.

In the east of the country, this trend is more pronounced than in the western regions. The problem of the collapse of production affected (many large, city-forming enterprises were liquidated in the mid-90s), which led to the destruction social infrastructure. As a result, the gap between life expectancy in the Chita region and the country as a whole increases to 5 years.

Compared with the world survival rates, at the beginning of this century, the Russian Federation lags behind the leaders by 15-20 years, and the Chita region can only be compared with the lagging countries of Central Africa (Appendix 1).

As mentioned above, changes in demographic processes are differentiated not only by regions, one can trace the different course of processes in municipalities. The paper considers such processes in the intercensal period of 1989-2002, in the context of districts and territories of the Chita region. The mortality tables were calculated for 1988-1990 and 2001-2003, which allows us to talk about the socio-economic and demographic situation, in relation to the time of the 1989 and 2002 population censuses.

Social problems of life expectancy in the region

The connection between life expectancy and elements of social and domestic arrangement (comfort or discomfort of the environment) is beyond doubt. The categories of quality and standard of living in the works of Transbaikal scientists are given a significant place (Bulaev, Kovaleva 2004; Bulaev, Burlov 1999). These concepts are closely interrelated, since the standard of living - the degree of satisfaction of people's needs in certain spatial conditions, is part of general concept quality of life, which unites all elements of life activity (Mayer, 1977; Matyukha, 1973; Politics..., 2003; Rimashevskaya, 1996,1998, Kodin, 2001).

It should be taken into account that the concept of “quality of life” includes parameters that are not always used by researchers; this also includes the geographical location of the area of ​​residence. The geographical differentiation of the quality of life includes several features, these should include: - location in a certain geographical area, which, with its climatic properties, forms one or another level of natural difficulties for the population living in it. The less comfortable natural conditions are, the more funds have to be spent on life support, which leads to an increase in the cost of consumer baskets and the cost of living. Taking into account these circumstances, the Chita region is assigned to the 7th (penultimate) group of regions in terms of the degree of discomfort of living;

Location relative to the centers of economy and culture. Russia is a centralized country with a sharp division of territories into the periphery and the center, in contrast to the countries of Europe, where many cities are cultural and social centers.

In the Russian Federation, for decades, the standard of living of metropolitan residents has been in sharp contrast with the outskirts of the country, this situation is unchanged in last years. The capitals (Moscow, St. Petersburg) are not only cultural and scientific centers, but also islands of greater social protection: supplements to pensions, the opportunity to use the achievements of health care. In addition, in the capitals there is a great opportunity to realize one's inner spiritual and intellectual potential. Residents of peripheral territories have a feeling of alienation, uselessness, which is always accompanied by an increase in the number of illogical and unmotivated deaths;

Remoteness also has other negative properties that make it impossible to meet the needs of people and maintain physiological health. In particular, recreation in the west of the country or abroad is available only to a limited part of the Transbaikalians, which is less than 10% of the population. A trip to Europe, taking into account the cost of the road within the country, for a resident of the Chita region costs twice as much as for a person living in the western part of Russia. Thus, the quality of life also includes natural elements, the influence of which can only be compensated by proper socio-economic actions. At this stage, the state practically does not take this circumstance into account, and the imaginary "equality" of the regions is an elementary lack of a well-thought-out social policy.

Any natural anomalies manifest themselves negatively and regardless of how much a person has adapted to regional conditions (Nikolsky, Ivakin, 1977). The high overall morbidity rate shown in Table 17 is calculated from the number of visits to medical institutions indicates the poor health of the general population. At the same time, it should be taken into account that many people do not go to polyclinics with mild cases of diseases and are not included in medical statistics.

MOSCOW, September 29 - RIA Novosti. There are no objective reasons for the rapid growth in life expectancy of Russians even with a favorable socio-economic situation in the country, gerontologist Elena Tereshina told RIA Novosti.

Earlier, Izvestia reported that Rosstat increased the life expectancy of pensioners in the Russian Federation. According to the forecasts of the service, Russians who retired last year can live an average of 78.4 years.

"There are no objective reasons for life expectancy to increase so rapidly," Tereshina said.

"I don't believe it. Even in a very favorable socio-economic environment," she added.

According to the gerontologist, based on her practice, average duration life, in particular, for men in Russia is no more than 65 years. Most often, Russians die from heart attacks and heart failure.

"My personal opinion is that if until recently the average life expectancy for men was 60.5 years, do you think that in seven years it is possible to reach 72? It is impossible. No country has ever achieved (such indicators) even in a very good economic environment" , the expert emphasized.

Interview

According to the VTsIOM survey, in old age, Russians are most often afraid of illness and poor health (34%), small pensions and lack of money (33%), loneliness (20%) and death (11%). At the same time, almost three-quarters of Russians (73%) are not afraid of old age, the share of such answers is high in all social groups. A quarter of the respondents (25%) reported fear of old age, more often such answers were given by people with a lower than secondary education (38%) and a poor financial situation (32%), as well as young people (31% among 18-24 year olds).

According to VTsIOM, the majority of Russians (62%) see their old age as an advantage. This answer was given by more than half of the respondents in all groups, regardless of gender, age and financial situation. They find pluses in communication with relatives and friends, the availability of free time, the opportunity to do what they love, as well as great life experience. At the same time, a third of the respondents (33%) do not see any advantages in old age, more often Muscovites and St. Petersburg residents (41%) and poor citizens (44%) do not notice them.

The opinions of the respondents about the age at which old age begins are divided: 27% believe that in the period from 60 to 64 years, 19% - from 55 to 59 years, 17% - at 50 - 54 years. Respondents of the oldest age group 60+ believe that old age comes either at 60-64 years old (25%) or at 70-74 years old (19%). At the same time, the respondents said that active and healthy lifestyle life (26% each), favorite interesting work (17%), material well-being (15%), good health(13%), loved ones (11%), proper nutrition(ten%). Lack of work, purpose in life, participation in public life are mentioned much less frequently.

According to VTsIOM, in old age those who have lived interesting life- Today, every second respondent (54%) thinks so, according to 37%, it is better for those who have savings. We can say that ideas about a prosperous old age have changed dramatically over the past 10-20 years. In 1998 and 2009, it was believed that those who have savings of 68% and 53%, respectively, live their old age better, and only 32% and 39%, respectively, named an interesting life.

The VTsIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on September 25-26, 2017. Russians over the age of 18 took part in the survey. 1.2 thousand respondents took part in the survey. For this sample, the maximum size of the error with a probability of 95% does not exceed 3.5%.

Contents: Human life expectancy Life expectancy in Russia Is health a problem or an asset for Russians? Average human life expectancy Aging Why does aging occur Causes of shorter life expectancy for men compared to women Factors that determine the development of age-related diseases Prevention and treatment infectious diseases Mortality in Russia Epidemiological transition: main causes of death Fertility Authors of the presentation

Human life expectancy Human life expectancy is determined not only by its biological, hereditary characteristics, but also by social conditions (life, work, rest, nutrition). Some people are known to live to be 110 years old or more. "Records" of life expectancy are found in various countries and parts of the world and characterize its species (biological) limit. Average life expectancy is a variable: it indicates the efforts of society aimed at preventing mortality and improving the health of the population. In economically developed countries, the average life expectancy has now reached 70 years.

Life expectancy in Russia In Russia, the average life expectancy is only years, for men - years, and for women - 73.1 years. This is even lower than that of such fraternal peoples as the Indians and Ukrainians!

Aging Aging in biology is the process of gradual deterioration and loss of important functions of the body or its parts, in particular the ability to reproduce and regenerate. Due to aging, the body becomes less adapted to the conditions environment, reduces and loses its ability to fight off predators and resist disease and injury. The science that studies aging is called gerontology. The term "aging" can be used to describe the social effects of human aging, as well as to describe the destruction of non-living systems (metal aging)

Why Aging Occurs The hypothesis that formed the basis of the genetic approach was proposed by Peter Medawar in 1952 and is now known as the “mutation accumulation theory”. Medovar noticed that animals in nature very rarely live to an age when aging becomes noticeable. According to his idea, alleles that appear during later periods of life and that arise as a result of germ cell mutations are subject to rather weak evolutionary pressure, even if properties such as survival and reproduction suffer as a result of their action. Thus, these mutations can accumulate in the genome over many generations. However, any individual that has managed to avoid death for a long time experiences their effects, which manifests itself as aging.

Reasons for the shorter life expectancy of men compared to women The difference in life expectancy has arisen as a result of sexual selection. Females and males play different roles in the reproduction process. In general, females are more involved in raising children than males, however, they may leave fewer offspring. The role of males is to attract and keep the attention of females. Males are doomed to fierce competition for female attention, and for this they have to pay a high price. In the wild, this means that male physiology is less beneficial and behavior is more risky. For example, the body's resources are spent on creating a spectacular appearance(for example, a peacock's tail) or physical combat with rivals. The immune system of men is somewhat weaker than the immune system women. The male body is less adapted to the absorption of fats. Smoking, overeating, risky driving, violence all contribute to the difference in life expectancy between men and women. "Now that disease-related deaths are on the decline, behavioral causes are becoming more important," says Kruger. Socio-economic factors also influence the difference in mortality. Men who occupy a low social position are at greater risk of dying than their prosperous peers. In women, this effect is not so pronounced. Scientists believe that this may be partly due to the riskier behavior of men who occupy a low social position or who do not have a permanent partner.

Factors that determine the development of so-called age-dependent diseases We consider genetic predisposition to be one of the most important factors and recognize the role of environmental influences. The impact of microorganisms is another leading factor in the etiopathogenesis of age-dependent diseases. Currently, the possibilities of influencing genetic predisposition are minimal or non-existent. At the same time, we can influence the microbial factor. Impact on the microbial factor Increased life expectancy Age-dependent diseases Genetic predisposition Microorganism exposure Other external and internal environmental factors

Mortality in Russia: (thousand people) 2002 year year year year year year The death rate among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average. However, infant mortality in Russia is only slightly higher than the European average.

Epidemiological transition: leading causes of death 1900 2004 Leading causes of death % of total deaths Leading causes of death % of total deaths 1. Pneumonia (all forms) and influenza 11.7 Heart disease 27.2 2. Tuberculosis (all forms)11.3 Malignant neoplasms 23.1 3. Diarrhea, enteritis, gastrointestinal ulcers 8.3 Cerebrovascular diseases 6.3 4. Heart diseases 7.9 Chronic obstructive diseases respiratory tract(COPD) 5.1 5. Cerebrovascular disease 6.2 All injuries 4.7 6. Nephritis (all forms) 5.6 Diabetes mellitus 3.1 7. All injuries 4.2 Alzheimer's disease 2.8 8. Malignant neoplasms 3.72 Pneumonia and influenza 2.5 9. Frailty 2.9 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis 1.8 10. Diphtheria 2.3 Septicemia 1.4

Birth rate: .8 thousand people, 0 thousand people, 3 thousand people, 5 thousand people, 4 thousand people, 6 thousand people, 1 thousand people, 5 thousand people The birth rate in Russia does not reach the level required for the simple reproduction of the population. The total birth rate is 1.4, while for simple reproduction of the population without population growth, a total birth rate of 2.112.15 is needed.

Man has always been interested in the cause of aging and death, but there is no exact answer to this question even today.

There were different theories, both religious and various other plans.

AT Ancient Egypt were of the opinion that human The heart increases in size (that is, grows) up to 40 years. After this period, it decreases in size and when it shrinks completely, the person dies.

The Egyptians paid great attention to the purity of the skin, believing that human health and longevity depended on the purity of the skin, because clogged pores cause old age. The Egyptians, when meeting each other, addressed with a greeting "How are you sweating?" , instead of "How are you?" .

In the 18th-19th centuries, European scientists also did not know enough about the causes of aging.

The most famous work on longevity at the end of the 19th century belongs to Christopher Hufeland - "Macrobiotics, or the science that guides life extension". In his work, Hufeland defined his views on human anatomy, physiology, identified the main reasons that shorten a person's life. According to his idea, life expectancy is reduced:

A further contribution to the development of the science of diligence was made by our compatriot Ilya Ilyich Mechnikov. He received the Nobel Prize for his discovery of phagocytosis - the devouring of foreign cells by human leukocytes.

Mechnikov believed that a person can live up to 120 years. The main reason for the extinction of functions human body, in his opinion, are putrefactive processes in the intestines. He developed a special whey, which was supposed to activate the intestines and rejuvenate the body. The secret of "Mechnikov's serum" has not been clarified, but it is believed that this is yogurt with the content of "Bulgarian sticks" II Mechnikov is the founder of the science of aging - gerontology.

He developed a "Code of Longevity" which included recommendations:

Renunciation of harmful habits - smoking, alcohol, overeating.;

Alternation of work and rest;

Prosperous family life;

Positive emotions;

Strong life stereotype.

According to the WHO (World Health Organization), the state of health of a person's life expectancy is determined by 4 main factors:

• lifestyle (50%)
• heredity (20%)
• climate (20%)

Health level (10%)

I would like to say a few words about the WHO. It was founded in 1947, it is a non-governmental organization that brings together medical associations from different countries. WHO members are highly qualified specialists and experts in various fields of medicine, Nobel Prize winners, world famous doctors and scientists, i.e. professionals of the highest level. The conclusions of WHO experts are based on reliable and verified data.

Life expectancy is affected by:

1.Character professional activity. Work can be physical, mental, or a combination of both.on can be measured, monotonous, impulsive. Working at night undoubtedly shortens life so that a person is so arranged that he must sleep at night.

Special working conditions (miners, submariners), harmful conditions labor (chemical production, radiation).

2. Physical activity.

3. Stress is the most powerful destroyer of health

4. Life of a person

5 Marital status

6. Nutrition

7 Bad habits

8Heredity

All of the above factors significantly affect the duration and quality of life.

The following pages will elaborate on these issues.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS

The population is the main resource of the Earth, but its number depends on the resources of the planet, economic and social conditions. The number of people on Earth is increasing every year, and the natural resources with which to ensure the life of this population, improve its quality and eliminate mass poverty, remain limited.

In the future, the current rate of population growth cannot be maintained. Already today, they threaten the ability of many states to provide education, culture, health care and food security for the population, reducing their ability to improve the level and quality of life. This gap between population and resources is all the more dangerous because the majority of population growth is concentrated in countries with low level income, with imperfect technology and a backward economy. Demographic problems are not only in the population, but also due to the natural and climatic features of the region, which are in an unfavorable position in terms of the environment. Both poverty and deterioration of the resource base can be observed in relatively sparsely populated regions of the arid zone, the Arctic, highlands, and tropical forests. Scientific and technological progress allows people to better use the resources they have. But these possibilities are not unlimited. How many people can live and work normally on Earth?

If, purely hypothetically, as a criterion of life support, we take a guaranteed receipt by a person of the minimum required daily caloric ration of 2500 kcal, then when using the entire area of ​​​​the Earth suitable for agriculture in the amount of 3650 million hectares and at the optimal level of costs for fertilizer, maintenance, cleaning, storage, etc. , then, according to scientists, it is possible to feed more than 50 billion people - 10 times more than now. But man does not live by bread alone.

A modern person needs a free subscription to newspapers and magazines, a small personal library or a high-quality video library; perhaps you need a separate house for housing with a family with a plot of land, a swimming pool and a view of the picturesque nature: a forest, mountains or the sea, and far from industrial enterprises, but near sports facilities; we need an interesting job chosen by vocation, enough free time for social activities, guaranteed social security in old age, etc. All these provisions are not a whim: the well-being and health of people, the health of society depends on their implementation.

Creating a happy life filled with deep meaning and joyful creativity would be the practical implementation of the ideas of humanism, as we understand them: the comprehensive development of the individual, ensuring maximum satisfaction of the constantly growing material and cultural needs of man. What is the optimum number of people on our planet? A little history first.

BACKGROUND

The problem of life expectancy has worried many minds of mankind since ancient times. Thanks to the progress of human civilization and socio-economic transformations aimed at improving the well-being of the people, there was a gradual increase in the average life expectancy and the number of centenarians. Moreover, this process was the more significant, the more successfully the social problems associated with the conditions were solved.

views of people's lives and their way of life. Paying tribute to the achievements of medicine and public health in general, we must firmly understand the following important circumstance. Nothing affects the increase in the average life expectancy of a person as much as the social and economic conditions in which a person lives. The ancient Greek physician, "father of medicine", Hippocrates himself lived 92 years and had every reason to give very reasonable advice on how to maintain health and lengthen one's life. To get by long life, Hippocrates advised to be moderate in eating, talked about the uselessness of excessively long sleep and the harmfulness of lack of sleep, about the beneficial effects of various loads, including walks in the fresh air.

The study of life expectancy on a scientific basis began in the 18th century, when the first life tables appeared. At the origins of demography stood such scientists as Huygens, Leibniz, Halley, Euler, Laplace. Since that time, great importance has been attached to the study of life expectancy and the analysis of tables.

In the 19th century, the accumulation of reliable statistical data and the development of perfect methods for processing them created the prerequisites for the first work on elucidating the quantitative patterns of life expectancy. In 1825, the English actuary (life insurance specialist) Benjamin Gompertz (1779-1865) published a paper that became the cornerstone of the biology of longevity. Gomperz substantiated theoretically and

Rice. 115. Average human life expectancy in the past (Grmek, 1964).

showed on specific examples that the intensity of mortality (the relative rate of extinction of a population) increases with age according to the law of geometric progression. In addition, he noted that along with this mortality, there should also be accidental mortality, which does not depend on age. W. Makem in 1960 added an age-independent component to Gomperz's law and derived a more accurate human mortality curve. The significance of the Gompertz-Makem law lies in the fact that it allows not only to describe the mortality curve, but to a certain extent to predict it.

Demography has developed in close connection with the study of the possibilities of increasing life expectancy and the science of aging - gerontology. Scientists became interested in the fight against the aging process about a hundred years ago (I.I. Mechnikov, Claude Bernard). The scientific study of this problem as a directly implemented project began in the late 40s of our century. A great contribution to the development of gerontology was made by the Soviet scientists A.A. Bogomolets, D.F. Chebotarev, V.V. Frolkis, V.P. Voitenko, G.N. Sichinova, A.V. Nagorny and others.

Historically, the average life expectancy of the population of our planet is steadily increasing. So, in the Stone Age, according to experts, it was 19 years, in the Bronze Age - 21.5, in the ancient age - 20-30 years, in the 17th century - 29 years, in 1900 - 41 years, in 1975 - 59 years. . In 2000, according to the forecast, the average life expectancy of the world's population will be 65.6 years. In addition to an increase in the average life expectancy on Earth in the 20th century, there has been a sharp increase in the population - from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7 billion people by 2000. The main reason for this is the maintenance of a high birth rate with a decrease in mortality.

In the past, people almost never cared about reducing the birth rate. Therefore, it was at a natural level, approximately the same at all times, at which the number of children born per year averaged 5% of the total population. This birth rate, with a normally high life expectancy, causes exponential population growth with a doubling period of about 25 years. This growth is currently observed in some developing countries. The same figure was called by T.R. Malthus in 1878.

During the Mesolithic, up to the seventh millennium BC, the population doubled over a period of about 3000 years, i.e., practically remained unchanged. People were then engaged in hunting and gathering. And nature, with such a nature of communication with it, withstood, being at the limit of its capabilities, only a few million people on the entire planet, several people per 100 m 2. This was the reason for the actual stationarity of the population. All born above this number had to die at a young age, because hunting and gathering, carried out on a large scale, led to the extinction of animals and edible plants. The absence of conscious birth control leads to the fact that the number of children grows until it begins to be limited to spontaneous mortality due to lack of resources, hunger, disease, wars - in fact, as a result of the ecological crisis.

HUMAN ECOLOGY AND AVERAGE LIFE LIFE

Much is said and written about the average life expectancy, however, quite often, due to terminological confusion, there is still a lot of confusion and conflicting judgments in the definition of concepts. First of all, it should be borne in mind that the term average life expectancy implies a certain statistical indicator calculated using complex formulas using the laws of probability theory. The calculation is based on data on the size of each of the age groups of the population and on the actual number of deaths in the same groups. Then, based on these data, a certain mathematical model is constructed that allows you to determine the desired statistical value. The characteristic of the average life expectancy becomes,

thus, quite objective. The most commonly used indicator is the average life expectancy in relation to those born in a given year. Therefore, the average life expectancy is understood to be the number of years that each of a large group of people born in any particular year lives, if during the whole life the mortality rate is the same as it was at the corresponding ages in the year of birth. Currently, the average life expectancy in different countries of the world varies greatly. The highest average life expectancy today is in Japan and Iceland at nearly 80 years, while the lowest is in Chad at 39 years.

The main factors that determine the duration of human life are genetic programming, natural and social environment.

With the development of scientific and technological progress, environmental tension is increasing, as is the threat to individual and public health.

Negative factors of anthropogenic impact are detrimental not only for ecosystems, but also contribute to a decrease in health reserves at the individual and population levels, an increase in the degree of psychophysiological and genetic stress, an increase in specific pathology and the emergence of new forms of environmental diseases, and in some regions, an increase in depopulation phenomena. That is why one of the most important determinants of health is considered to be the environment and living conditions of the population.

As a result of social and scientific and technological progress, the human environment is transforming so rapidly that the question arises of the commensurability of its changes with the evolutionarily determined human capabilities.

The habitat created by man now affects his own organism, biological and social processes, causing changes in the structure of morbidity and mortality, reproduction and migration parameters of the population, as well as such an integral indicator as life expectancy.

Population growth and development are linked in a very complex way.

The population limitation mechanism is based on the fact that population growth, increasing the burden on nature, worsens living conditions and reduces labor efficiency.

However, the same result is equally obtained by raising the standard of living of the population with a constant number.

Each stage of the scientific, technological and social development of society in the history of mankind raised the ceiling of the population, determined by natural resources. In turn, raising the population ceiling above the actual value of the population led to an increase in the level and quality of life and a decrease in mortality. Actually, this is the historical role of the progress of civilization. However, in an environment of uncontrolled birth rates, a decrease in mortality led to a rapid increase in the population to a new ceiling position, and the mechanism of limiting the number of deaths due to lack of resources began again at a new level, and the standard of living returned to the lower limit. In fact, scientific and technological development proceeded continuously at the same pace as the development of society, and the standard of living rose slightly above the biological minimum and the higher, the more intensively the development took place. If scientific, technological and social achievements made a leap, then the population got the opportunity to grow for some time with a doubling period of 25 years. This is precisely the situation that is now being observed in some developing countries, owing to their use of tremendous advances in medicine and other fields.

POPULATION EXPLOSION AND BIRTH RESTRICTION

The principle of maximum reproduction is the weapon with which life has conquered our entire planet, filled all ecological niches. Man lives today

everywhere on Earth and began to explore outer space - near-Earth space. But there would not be so much life, there would not be such a variety of life phenomena, if living beings were immortal. Death is the only instrument of nature to which we owe our biological perfection. Unlike death as a regulating factor, a conscious birth control can provide nature with the reduction of the burden that scientific and technological progress bears on it, and thereby raise the level and quality of people's lives. But this seemingly so obvious and reasonable proposal is not unambiguously perceived by society. The idea of ​​consciously curbing the birth rate is condemned by many and perceived as a crime against life. There is an idea that by limiting the birth rate, we deny the opportunity to live to unborn people, and this restriction is a manifestation of a kind of selfishness in relation to those who, because of our limit, will not visit the "great feast of nature." But do people everywhere take care of everyone who is born into the world? If this were so, then infant mortality would not be so high, tens of millions of children would not starve, orphanages would not be overcrowded ... Often children are born in poverty, out of wedlock, and conception occurs through accidental, and sometimes aggravating circumstances (alcoholism, drug addiction). The fact is that in the process of evolution, reproduction and childbearing were bonded in humans with deep positive emotions. At the first stages of biological evolution, it was precisely because of this that the principle of maximum reproduction was realized. A completely different situation has developed in the world now, when the Earth is overpopulated, and social processes dominate in society.

250 thousand babies are born daily, 1040 per hour, 3 per second. In 21 days, as many as the population of a large city are born, in 8 months - Germany, in 7 years - Africa.

For every Japanese woman, there are 1.57 children, in Germany - 1.4, in underdeveloped regions - 4-6. In order for the number not to decrease, at least 2.1 is necessary.

The declining population in the rich industrial countries of the north, on the one hand, and its explosive growth in the poorest countries of the south, on the other hand, this contrast is turning into one of the biggest socio-economic and political problems of the coming decades.

Due to the rapid growth of the population, the unrestrained process of changing the face of the Earth has already begun. The UN Population Report emphasizes that in the 1990s, demographic change will reach a critical level. Continuous urban sprawl, soil destruction and water pollution, large-scale deforestation and the ever-increasing concentration of greenhouse gases are all the result of rapid uncontrolled population growth. The crown of creation - man - becomes a kind of disaster.

The “echo effect” is what demographers call the situation when, after a birth boom, more and more children are born due to an increase in the number of young families. The "echo effect" and the new birth surge combine to create an explosive mixture for the world.

According to the demographic forecast, from 1990 to 2000 the world's population will increase by almost 1 billion people. It is expected that in 2025 the population of the Earth will be 8.467 billion people, i.e., in the next 35 years, humanity will increase by 3.1 billion - this corresponds to the entire population of the planet in 1960. Even during the lifetime of one generation, the Earth will be inhabited, according to the most optimistic estimates, at least 10-11 billion people. All the progress made is canceled out by population growth. Under the pressure of statistics around the world, the trend towards birth control is increasing. The family planning program is already being implemented by 125 states. The increase in population sooner or later comes up against the limited size of the world's resources. Even doubling grain production in the past 30 years has not been enough to keep the growing number of hungry people at bay. By 2025, Africa's population will more than double, from the current 648 million to 1.58 billion. At the same time, economic backwardness will increase.

Rice. 116. World population growth since the beginning of AD. e. before 2000

In 1950, 22% of the population was in Europe and North America, Africa - only 9%. In the coming decades, this ratio will change to the opposite. Birth rates in Europe show a declining population.

Settlers can help solve the problem of Europe's labor market, but for the "third world" a trip to the North is not an escape from overpopulation. In addition, this emigration is sure to run into protests from the natives.

Thus, population growth is becoming one of the most important global processes. In developing countries, up to 70% of the increase in food demand is due solely to population growth. In the long term, the further growth of the nation will not bring any significant benefits: on the contrary, the gradual stabilization of the population could help the nation solve its problems. One thing is clear, that today a modern person has no agreement either with himself or with the environment. It is not just the quality of life that is at stake, but life itself. Humanity is at a crossroads: one path is self-destruction, the other is the possibility of universal prosperity. Mankind is already fully aware of itself as a single, many-sided family living in one house - on planet Earth.

There are many problems in our common home that are common to all who live in it. We are talking about pollution and even destruction of the natural environment around us, about food crises in many regions of the planet, about natural disasters and catastrophes generated not so much natural phenomena how much human activity.

There is a reassessment of universal human values ​​in the world. Not only society's expenditures on maintaining and improving health are changing, but also the very attitude towards health,

its social subjective-personal value in culture and interpersonal relations will melt.

The population of the country, of course, affects the socio-economic development. However, everything has its opposite. The abundance of a resource can encourage wastefulness, while the scarcity or lack of it can stimulate frugality and the search for new resources. The same applies to the population, if we consider it as a resource.

Today, everyone already understands that the population of the Earth cannot grow indefinitely, and the rate of its growth has begun to slow down almost everywhere. The growth of the world's population peaked at the end of the 60s, and then began to decline. At the same time, in the economically developed regions of the Earth, by the end of the century, population growth rates will still be approximately 4 times lower than in developing regions. And these rates can be influenced only to a limited extent.

According to the forecasts of UN demographers, somewhere in the third quarter of the next century, the growth of the world's population will stop. Even now, in a number of countries, the population is actually not growing. Growth is slowing because the birth rate is declining faster than the death rate. Over the past decades, the total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conditional generation in a lifetime) has decreased globally from 4.95 to 3.28. At the same time, in economically developed regions of the world, the indicator decreased from 2.66 to 1.97, and in developing regions - from 6.07 to 3.69. In recent years, many developing countries have been pursuing a demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate and slowing down the population growth rate in order to adapt the economy to them, improve the natural environment for the life of the current and future population. Sociologists and demographers agree with the idea of ​​population stationarity, but on the condition that an excessive decline in the birth rate does not lead to depopulation. Clear criteria for assessing the demographic situation have already been developed. The level of stationary reproduction of the “population” corresponds to a low mortality rate, equal to 2.1 children on average per woman, regardless of her marital status, or 2.6 per married couple capable of childbearing. This is ensured provided that approximately 40% of families have two children, and 60% - three.

Today, in most economically developed countries and in a number of developing countries, the total fertility rate is much lower than 2.1, that is, below the level required to ensure at least a simple reproduction of the population (table). The lowest birth rate is observed today in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Austria, Greece. This is the result of the widespread use of effective contraceptives and artificial abortions, contrary to the prohibitions of the church. Almost 4/5 of the population of our country has a low birth rate. In demography, the concept of growth (growth) and reproduction of the population (replacement of generations) is distinguished. Growth is determined by the difference between the number of births and deaths in the same year, reproduction - by the numerical ratio of two generations: parents and children. Growth depends on the levels of fertility, mortality and on the characteristics of the age structure, while reproduction depends only on the ratio of fertility and mortality.

With the development of civilization, mortality decreased to a much lesser extent in younger age groups than in older ones, which contributed to the rejuvenation of the age structure and the accumulation of population growth potential. Even if the generation of children is numerically smaller than the generation of parents, natural growth may remain positive for a long time. The current situation with the birth rate in the "developed" world is figuratively called "demographic winter". And in the next decades, no "spring" is expected. The birth rate is inversely proportional to the standard of living. The wealthier and more educated classes of society want fewer children in the family. This can be seen from the table. Having few children is not only a consequence, but also a symptom of the disease of the social institution of the family. In order to reduce the number of inhabitants of the Earth from the current 5.3 to 1 billion people without an increase in mortality, only by reducing the birth rate, this would require

elk would be about 600 years old. What can happen during this time, no one can currently predict.

The planet is changing its shape. The last decade of our century will become a kind of “gateway” into the next millennium. Where will the world be by the year 2000? According to leading futurologists, a happy future for humanity is not guaranteed. Much will depend on how it behaves in the last decade of the outgoing millennium. Therefore, everything depends on us. Man is the main resource of the Earth, and "the measure of everything is man."

Man is connected with the environment by deep and strong ties, and he himself, in essence, is a part of nature. To be happy and healthy, one must study its laws and not violate them, but live in harmony with it. Even Seneca argued; "To live happily and to live according to nature are one and the same." The main feature of the man of the future will not be in his ability to increase life expectancy, not in his anatomical and physiological characteristics, but in his conscious well-being and high spiritual qualities.

To solve environmental problems, along with the accumulation of scientific results, efforts are required to train specialists who are able to translate modern knowledge into practice. Ecological education cannot be limited only to general discussions about the need to respect the environment. It is important to achieve an understanding of the complexity of the relationships in living nature, the role and place of man and human society in these systems.

Table 27. Dynamics of total fertility rates in selected economically developed countries